Situation Report: The Hormuz Shock Has Spread — Gold Sounds the Alarm, Food Prices Set to Explode

If this is your first encounter with The Hormuz Shock, start with the first instalment — there we mapped out in detail how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Double Shock in Hungary (the loss of the Druzhba ('Friendship') pipeline) paralyse logistics and cripple European industry. The latest market and macro data show that the crisis has since moved up a gear. The energy crisis has ballooned into a global commodity and food crisis.

One detail the Western press seldom flags: Iran has not closed the strait uniformly. The passage remains open to vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq and Pakistan — the blockade falls chiefly on the Western bloc. This means the energy shock does not land evenly across the global economy: Asian economies absorb far smaller increases, while Europe and the United States bear the brunt.

To keep our readers up to date, we turn to the latest market trends — including data from the DB Commodity Index and the MSCI Global Agriculture Producers — to give clear answers to the most pressing questions: What is now beyond doubt? What lies ahead in the coming months? And how hard will inflation strike Hungary?

1. What Is Beyond Doubt? Currency Debasement and the Commodity Supercycle

The events of the past six months on global markets leave no room for speculation. In the first quarter of this year, the commodity price benchmark (the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund) rose nearly 30% — roughly 42% year on year — approaching the oil-shock peaks of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war. How the prices of key inputs have moved in recent months:

One thing is beyond question: the message of the gold price. Gold has tripled over the past few years. In January 2026, the price per ounce hit an all-time high of $5,589. It has since corrected by roughly 13% and is trading around $4,750 — partly reflecting ceasefire hopes. This does not, however, erase the longer-term signal: gold's sustained rise shows that central-bank money creation is eroding the real value of paper currencies. The correction signals not the end of the crisis but a fleeting bout of market optimism — while fertiliser prices, fuel costs and supply-chain disruption continue regardless.

2. What Lies Ahead? The Food-Market Gap Closes

The most critical trend defining the coming months is the temporary disconnect between commodity prices. One of the widest gaps in history now yawns between surging energy and gold prices on one hand, and agricultural crops (wheat, maize, soybeans) on the other. History, however, shows that these commodities move closely together over the long run.

Since oil and natural gas are the physical foundation of food production — think fertiliser, tractor fuel and transport — energy prices will inevitably feed into food prices. Moreover, the agricultural sector has been structurally under-financed over the past decade because of suppressed prices, resulting in a global, structural crop shortfall.

The smart money is already positioning for it: the iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF is up nearly 27% over the past year. The real driver is most visible in the fertiliser market: since the Iran war broke out, urea is up 49% and ammonia 18.5% — while one-third of global maritime fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The USDA is already projecting a 3% drop in planted acreage for wheat and maize. What looks like a return on the exchange becomes a steep price rise at the checkout.

3. How High Will Inflation Go Globally — and When?

The mainstream narrative spent months trying to make us believe that central banks had inflation under control. On present evidence, that was a historic mistake.

• United States (CPI): US inflation jumped to 3.3% as early as March — with petrol surging 21.2% in a single month, the steepest monthly increase since 1967. The impact of energy prices has not yet fully fed through into core inflation data; analysts see headline CPI at 4–5% over the coming quarters. For the American economy, this means rates staying elevated for the foreseeable future, and stagflationary dynamics reminiscent of the 1970s.
• The stock-market illusion: History — 1974, 1987, 2008, 2022 — shows that when inflation suddenly spikes, stock markets (e.g. the S&P 500) first crash, often seeing severe double-digit corrections. After that, however, they invariably break new records. This long-term rise does not reflect the strength of the real economy, but the steady debasement of the dollar. Stocks are priced in dollars: if the dollar weakens, their nominal price rises.

4. What to Expect in Hungary? (Scale and Timing)

Hungary's macro picture has shifted in two significant ways in recent weeks. Politically, opposition leader Péter Magyar secured a two-thirds majority in the elections on 12 April 2026 — markets are pricing in a normalisation of EU relations and the unlocking of frozen EU funds, which is strengthening the Hungarian forint (HUF). Economically, however, the global shock is hitting a small open economy dependent on energy imports, whose food prices hinge on fertiliser and fuel costs.

There is a decisive difference between the current picture and what is coming: In March 2026, Hungarian inflation stood at just 1.8% year on year, with food prices flat — a near nine-year low. This does not signal the absence of the shock, but its delayed nature: the fertiliser that farmers are now paying dearly for will feed into the supply chain only after the summer harvest. Shoppers will not see it on domestic supermarket shelves until autumn and winter 2026 at the earliest.

The Anatomy and Timing of Hungarian Inflation:

1. Immediate impact (weeks/months ahead): Fuel prices already reflect oil's roughly 54% year-on-year rise — Brent is currently trading above $100. On 9 March, the government imposed a price cap: petrol at HUF 595 and diesel at HUF 615, available only to vehicles with Hungarian licence plates. The physical shortages we warned about earlier are already a reality in several areas: small petrol stations cannot operate viably at the regulated price, and supply disruptions are increasingly common at the pumps. Prices for services and imported goods jump almost immediately as transport costs bite.
2. Delayed impact (Autumn and Winter): The real blow to Hungarian society lands in the second half of the year. The data above show that agricultural crop prices are only now beginning to catch up with gold and oil. Urea fertiliser prices have risen 49% since the outbreak of the Iran war — this unaffordable input cost will pass through to the domestic food supply chain in full only after the summer harvest. Higher fuel costs further narrow farmers' room for manoeuvre.

The 44.0% peak recorded by Hungary's Central Statistical Office (KSH) in January 2023 came amid a comparable energy shock. The present shock has a different structure — the inflation base is lower, the forint is stronger, the political situation is more stable — so the extreme levels of 2023 will most likely not repeat. A 15–25% food-inflation band is, however, a realistic prospect by autumn–winter 2026 if the ceasefire does not stabilise and the fertiliser-price shock passes through in full. Since food and energy account for an outsized share of the typical Hungarian household's basket, the average Hungarian family will feel the pinch far more acutely than the raw figures indicate.